Slide 78 is glowing with a blue light that makes everyone in the boardroom look slightly like they are underwater. I am sitting in the corner, watching Chloe Z., a court sketch artist who has been hired for some baffling reason to document this ‘visioning session,’ as she meticulously renders the CEO’s jawline. Her charcoal scratches against the paper-a rhythmic, abrasive sound that cuts through the sterile hum of the air conditioning.
The Certainty Projection
*The elegant upward curve suggesting mathematical certainty for Q4 2028.
On the screen, a graph predicts revenue for the fourth quarter of 2028. It is a beautiful line, an elegant upward curve that suggests a world of mathematical certainty, a world where variables behave and the wind never changes direction. I look at the 28 executives in the room, all of them nodding at a projection of a reality that does not exist yet and, in all likelihood, never will.
Institutional Nostalgia and the Furniture in the Room
There is a specific kind of madness in the long-range strategic plan. It is a form of institutional nostalgia, a longing for a time when things stayed put long enough to be measured. We spend $88,888 on consultants to tell us what the market will look like in 48 months, while simultaneously ignoring the fact that our own phones are currently vibrating with news that could render the entire industry obsolete by Thursday.
Chloe Z. stops sketching for a moment. She leans over and whispers to me that the CEO has 8 distinct lines of worry on his forehead that he keeps trying to smooth out with a forced smile. She doesn’t draw the slides; she draws the people. She draws the way their hands grip their pens too tightly when the word ‘disruption’ is mentioned. She is capturing the truth of the room, which is a profound, vibrating anxiety masquerading as foresight.
“This is the core of the frustration: the elaborate ritual of the five-year plan isn’t actually about navigation. It’s about comfort. It’s a collective hallucination we agree to participate in so we don’t have to admit that we are mostly just winging it.
Incantations Against Chaos
We pretend that if we name the future, we own it. We use words like ‘synergy’ and ‘scalability’ as if they are incantations that can ward off the chaos of a six-month world. But the world doesn’t care about our slide decks. The world is a series of 18-week cycles disguised as a steady state. When the 2018 plans were written, nobody had ‘global pandemic’ on their list of SWOT analysis threats. When the 1998 plans were written, the internet was still a curiosity. Yet, here we are, staring at the year 2028 as if it’s a destination we’ve already booked a flight to.
Plan vs. Process: The Lesson of the Barrel
I find myself thinking about the difference between a plan and a process. A plan is a tombstone; it marks the spot where an idea died and was buried in a binder. A process is what happens in the dirt. It is adaptive. It is messy. It is the way a master distiller approaches a barrel. You cannot command whiskey to be ready in exactly 1888 days just because your spreadsheet says so. You have to wait. You have to taste. You have to respond to the wood, the temperature, and the invisible breath of the warehouse.
With Old rip van winkle 12 year, time is not a target; it is a partner. There is a profound humility in acknowledging that some things simply take as long as they take, and that your ‘vision’ is secondary to the reality of the liquid.
The spreadsheet is a lie
(We tell ourselves so we can sleep at night.)
Chloe Z. turns the page. She starts a new sketch of the CFO, who is currently explaining how we will achieve an 88 percent increase in efficiency through ‘algorithmic optimization.’ It sounds impressive. It sounds like science. But it’s really just a way of saying we hope the math stays lucky. I’ve made this mistake myself. I once spent 38 days building a content strategy for a platform that was sold and shuttered before I even hit ‘publish.’ I was so focused on the architecture of the future that I didn’t notice the ground was being excavated beneath my feet. We are all guilty of this. We value the map more than the terrain because the map is static and the terrain is wet and cold and keeps moving.
The Trade-Off: Adaptability vs. Appearance
Why do we do it? Because the alternative-admitting we don’t know-is terrifying to the people who sign the checks. An investor doesn’t want to hear that a company is ‘staying agile and responding to real-time data.’ They want the illusion of a controlled environment. We are trading genuine adaptability for the appearance of stability, and it is a dangerous trade.
Prevents Small Pivots
Enables Necessary Changes
I look at my muted phone again. The 8 missed calls represent 8 opportunities to engage with the actual present. One of them might be a crisis; one of them might be a breakthrough. But here I am, trapped in a room where we are debating the hypothetical price of a product that hasn’t been designed yet, for a consumer whose habits haven’t been formed yet, in a world that might be underwater or on fire. It feels like we are rearranging the deck chairs on a ship that hasn’t even left the dock yet, while ignoring the fact that the tide is coming in.
Chloe Z.’s sketch is finished. It’s haunting. She’s captured the CEO not as a visionary leader, but as a man trying to hold back a storm with a clipboard. She understands that the future isn’t a line on a graph; it’s a series of moments that we either meet or we miss.
The Sketch Artist’s Imperative
The obsession with the five-year plan is a form of cowardice. It’s an attempt to skip the hard work of being present, of being observant, and of being brave enough to change your mind when the facts change.
ACT LIKE A SKETCH ARTIST
We need to be able to capture the essence of what is happening right now, with the full knowledge that we might have to turn the page and start over in an hour. We need more charcoal and less PowerPoint. We need to embrace the smudge.
There is a certain beauty in the 18-year aging process of a fine spirit, but only because it acknowledges the variables. It doesn’t pretend the weather won’t happen. It incorporates the weather into the flavor. The corporate world tries to do the opposite; it tries to sanitize the weather out of the plan. It tries to create a vacuum-sealed future where nothing unexpected ever occurs. But the unexpected is the only thing we can actually count on. The only 108 percent certainty we have is that the plan will be wrong.
Checking the Missed Calls
The 8 Missed Calls: Reality Awaiting Engagement
The world is messy, loud, and completely indifferent to slide 78.
I stand up to leave as the presentation moves to slide 118. The air in the room feels heavy, saturated with the weight of all those unearned certainties. Chloe Z. packs up her charcoals. She looks at me and shrugs. ‘He’s going to need a bigger eraser,’ she says, nodding toward the CEO. I walk out into the hallway and finally check my 8 missed calls. The world is still there, messy and loud and completely indifferent to slide 78. I feel a strange sense of relief. The plan is dead, and the day has finally begun.
The Final Reckoning
How much of your life is currently being spent on a version of 2028 that you don’t even believe in?